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HWWI-economic forecast shows:
Long term growth trend in air traffic
In the plan-finding-procedure concerning a third runway at munich airport, the additional economic opinion which was requested by the government of Oberbayern was now provided. The approving authority requested the opinion at an independent economic institute (Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut, short HWWI) to prove if the economic circumstances which were the basis for the demand forecast of the third runway have changed gravely. The provided opinion confirms the long term economic growth trend which was alleged in the original demand forecast of the company Intraplan.
German economy is booming
Since spring 2009, German economy has – due to HWWI – been going uptrend. Due to actual forecasts of all experts (Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute, Sachverständigenrat, Bundesbank, Bundesregierung) concerning the economic cycle, the rising tendency will continue in 2010 and 2011. The HWWI further provides three scenarios to evaluate the long term dynamic of growth.
All three Scenarios predict a varying economic growth rate but still a steady economic growth trend until 2010 - with a perspective to 2025. In the so called basis scenario with the highest probability of occurrence, the average annual growth rate in Germany amounts 1.3 percent from 2005 to 2020. Based on the worldwide economic growth rate, the HWWI predicts a considerably higher growth rate with 3.8 percent between 2005 and 2020 than assumed by the air traffic forecast of Intraplan.
Oil price: only slight effects on the air traffic
The oil price which influences the ticket prices in the air traffic, experts predict an increase in all three scenarios until the year 2020. Most likely, the oil price will increase to 103 US Dollar a Barrel. The actual trend shows that the increase of the oil price of 120 percent from 2003 to 2007 has not influenced the air traffic. The volume of passengers had increased to more than 32 percent in this time period – even to 41 percent in Munich.
Munich airport has reached capacity limit
Regardless of the traffic development, the need for a third runway can be seen in the daily business at Munich airport. In the main hours, the airport is already operating at a limit: instead of 90 planed take-offs and landings an hour which can be performed with the available two-runway-system, 110 of these slots are already demanded by the air traffic companies.
